Wow, the Marlins try to do some crazy stuff. Would this trade have made any sense? It’s hard enough to put a win value on players; doing so with managers is particularly tough.
Marlins right fielder Mike Stanton hit .259/.326/.507 with 22 home runs this season. Additionally he recorded 10 outfield assists, and UZR pegged him as a +7 run fielder. All of that was worth about 2.7 wins over a replacement player for 100 games — roughly 4 wins above replacement over a full season. Stanton should be under contract for at least five more seasons, meaning that if he played up to the same level, he should conservatively be worth somewhere between 20-25 wins until he hits free agency.
Ozzie Guillen, on the other hand, led his White Sox to a 88-74 record this season, and a 600-535 record overall in his seven years as manager. Trying to put a win value on that is impossible. But let’s try anyway. As a strategist, Guillen over-manages — his teams bunt often, they run into a lot of outs on the base paths, and he calls for too many intentional walks. His value doesn’t come from his in-game tactics, which are probably a negative overall, but rather his demeanor and persona. And that’s what the Marlins would have needed to value correctly.
His twitter account, on the other hand, is priceless.
Essentially, Guillen would need to be worth 4-5 wins (above the next best manager the Marlins could freely hire) every season for the next five years for this deal to just break even. Would that have been possible? It sounds high to me.
Now, if the deal were Guillen for any of the other Mike Stantons in baseball, that’s another story…