2011 Mets Trade Value: Part Two

This is part two of the 2011 Mets Trade value Series. If you missed it, click here for part one and the rules.

Group 4: The B Team

20. Dillon Gee, starting pitcher – Gee’s great control and below-average stuff means few walks, a lot of strikeouts, and a lot of home runs; his last name means plenty of bad Post headlines.

19. Reese Havens, second baseman – .978 OPS this season and .830 OPS in the minors overall, but Havens has played just 152 games over three seasons, and just 32 this past year. The 22nd pick of the 2008 draft can’t keep himself on the field; a healthy 2011 will send his stock back up.

18. Cesar Puello, outfielder – A stockier Carlos Gomez, if Carlos Gomez raised his OBP by getting hit by a lot of pitches . . . and was better at baseball. Puello posted a .375 on-base percentage, 45 steals and 8 outfield assists from right as a 19 year old at Single-A, but just 1 home run.

17. Juan Urbina, pitcher – Son of Ugueth. Lefthanded, throws in the low nineties with good control, doesn’t turn eighteen until May. Long way off, so forget about him for a while, but has value as an easily projected prospect.

16. Jeurys Familia, pitcher – Live arm at Advanced-A (137 strikeouts in 121 innings), but command issues. Familia has value because of his age (21 this season) and the strikeouts. He might fall under my “overrated because of an odd name” theory.

15. 14. Cory Vaughn, outfielder and Aderlin Rodriguez, third baseman – Vaughn, Greg’s son and the Mets’ fourth round pick in the 2010 draft, hit .305/.396/.557 for Low-A Brooklyn this season. Rodriguez is a big teenage third baseman who showed good power in rookie ball, but 22 errors in 66 games doesn’t reflect well on his defense. Wait and see how both do against more advanced pitching next season — though in the case of Vaughn and Urbina, when it comes to baseball prospects, never bet against nepotism.

"Forsooth!"

13. R.A. Dickey, starting pitcher – Threw 235 innings between the majors and minors last season . . . Dickey is the first major league player I had ever spoken with. It was back in September of this year — just my second time in the locker room — and I was still nervous as all hell. For my first couple questions, I don’t think my voice ever cracked a whisper; I was also partially distracted the whole conversation trying to figure out what exactly Dickey was eating. (It looked like red beans and corn in milk, which I suspect is something Southern that I’m unfamiliar with.) I’m really, really glad no one has that on tape. Anyway, I asked him about throwing the knuckleball at different speeds. Dickey said it was something he had messed around with before, but 2010 was the first season he’d felt comfortable changing speeds in games. According to Dickey, all he had to do to vary his speed was to stay back over the rubber different times, which allowed him to throw the knuckleball, the slow knuckleball, and the slower knuckleball. He even loosely quoted Warren Spahn in his explanation, saying, “As a student of the game, I recognized that hitting is timing, and pitching is disturbing that timing.” Then he ate some more of the bean-corn thing.

I suspect that the different knuckleball speeds were part of the secret to Dickey’s success in 2010, and because of that I’m inclined to think his year was no fluke. My guess is that he makes $4 million dollars in arbitration this season, as his best comparison is Tim Wakefield, who has made about that with the Red Sox every season since 2003. If the Mets can lock him up for two years, $7 million, sign me up. Dickey would rank much higher on this list with an extension, but is only under team control for 2011 at the moment.

12. Matt Harvey, pitcher – The seventh overall pick of the 2010 draft, Harvey throws a mid-nineties sinker, but questions linger about his control and secondary offerings. He could arrive in the majors by 2012 if everything goes right this year.

11. Josh Thole, catcher – Jason Kendall with less power and batting gloves. Thole is under team control for at least the next five years. If he can float his OPS above .700 by taking lessons at the “Luis Castillo school of never swinging for slap-hitters” and throw a baserunner out every once in a while, he’ll be acceptable.

10. Bobby Parnell, relief pitcher – In 2010, Parnell’s fastball averaged 96.5 MPH, which was the fifth fastest in the majors. He struck out 33 against just 8 walks (2 intentional) in 35 major league innings in 2010, and kept the ball down, generating ground balls and allowing just a single home run. It looked like he sort of figure it all out once he was called up.

That said, Parnell has given up a lot of hits at every level as he’s progressed. I’m hesitant to blame all of it on poor defenses and the sabermetric BAbip fairy. Some pitchers actually do give up more hits than others, and Parnell might be one of those dudes. That being the case, the 96.5 MPH is still cool and he’s under team control for five more years, so Parnell has trade value as a potential closer/setup man. Provided he can limit the hits, and something happens to Frankie Rodriguez, Parnell might be your 2012 closer.

9. Fernando Martinez, disabled list – This is high, but I’m still a believer. He’s been injured and rushed, which means, much like me, Martinez has no idea how to play baseball at a high level. Thus, he has no real approach at the plate. Don’t-call-my-name Fernando did put up a .222 isolated slugging percentage in Triple-A the past two years as a 20 and 21 year old, which means that even with no real approach, he’s hitting the ball hard whenever he makes contact. The arthritis in the knee is bad and limits him to a corner, but that might be a good idea anyway. If and when he plays enough to figures it out, look out.

Group 5: The Big Trade Chips

8. Jose Reyes, shortstop – A single year left on his current deal, injuries, and a down period lowers his value, but if Reyes returns to his 2006-2008 form, he jumps to at least #5 on this list. At the moment, however, I’m still assuming the 2010 version is the new Reyes.

If he repeats last season, Reyes is worth a tick more than the $11 million he’ll make; he’s also likely be a type-A free agent at the end of the year, netting his former team two valuable draft picks if he signs elsewhere. The two potential draft picks and a severe shortage of talented shortstops bumps his value way up — if the Mets consider moving Reyes at the trading deadline this season, the bidding might become too insane not to do it. I can envision Brian Sabean and Doug Melvin having a contest to see who can destroy the remainder of their farm system first.

7. Jenrry Mejia, pitcher
– Have you ever seen Mejia look upset, or flustered, or frustrated? He’s unshakably confident, almost to the point that it’s a little bit weird. It seems like he could give up twenty hits in a row and still be absolutely convinced he was going to strike the next guy out on three pitches. I don’t know if this is a good or bad thing, but I’d suspect that it’s good; he might not have survived the abuse of the previous front office if that wasn’t the case.

6. Wilmer Flores, soon-to-be-former-shortstop – The best hitting prospect in the Mets system, Flores doesn’t turn 20 until August 2011. He hit .300 after a promotion to the Florida State League this year, where he was easily the youngest player; most of the pitchers were four or five years older. Baseball America ranked him the #88 best prospect in baseball last offseason, but that’s going to jump up after this year.

Group 6: Where Morlocks live (The Core)

5. Angel Pagan, outfielder – Now has 1,009 plate appearances over the past two years that say, “Hey! I’m really awesome at just about everything.” One of the ten or eleven best outfielders in baseball, and a worthy successor to Carlos Beltran in center field. Pagan is arbitration eligible for the next two seasons, but probably won’t make too much because his skill set is varied and undervalued.

4. Jon Niese, starting pitcher – 190 innings per season and a 4.10 ERA for the next five years is really valuable. Niese won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2013, and young, cheap pitching is baseball’s gold standard.

3. Mike Pelfrey, starting pitcher
– Pelfrey and Niese are interchangeable in value, depending on what you’re looking for. Pelfrey is a better pitcher at the moment — if only because he throws more innings — but is arbitration eligible for the next three seasons, making him more expensive than Niese. A team in win-now mode would rather have Pelfrey, but a team building for the next few years would rather have Niese. These two make nice rotation pieces for at least the next three years, but the problem is the other three slots.

2. Ike Davis, first baseman – Davis’ walks and strikeouts from month to month this season:

Split G PA BB SO
April/March 11 41 6 8
May 28 115 16 30
June 26 110 4 26
July 26 108 10 28
August 26 103 17 25
Sept/Oct 30 124 19 21
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2010.

The league adjusted to him in June; Davis adjusted back by September, when he hit .330/.427/.524. His 72 walks are the most by a rookie first baseman since Jeff Bagwell walked 75 times in 1991. Davis will be 24 this season, and is controlled by the Mets through the 2015 season. He’s not going to be a superstar, but he’ll be better than Adam LaRoche, and Davis might make an All-Star game and win a gold glove somewhere along the way. With a big year, he has a chance to take over the top spot on this list.

1. David Wright, third baseman – Over the past two seasons, Wright has hit .307, posted a .390 on-base percentage, hit 29 home runs, and stolen 27 bases — only he hasn’t done all those things in the same year. He can still do it all, but not at once. The power came back last year at the expense of the average; he still seems to change his batting stance every two months. Wright’s fielding at third base has become pretty ugly, particularly going towards the line … and that whole throwing the baseball thing. There’s something weird going on, and hopefully the new coaching staff can figure it out.

Even with all that stuff — the bad fielding, the power drop, the strikeouts — Wright is still the Mets’ best player. His bad seasons would be career years for a majority of the team. Wright is signed for $45 million dollars over the next three seasons, and has the ability to rattle off a monster MVP season any of those years. He is their most valuable trade chip.

Okay, that’s the full list. Arguments will once again be accepted in the comments.

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70 Comments

Filed under Columns, Mets, Words

70 responses to “2011 Mets Trade Value: Part Two

  1. Rob

    Wow a two part piece …and neither part was worth the time it took to read them.

    No new information on the Mets, very little in the fact department. This was just another blogger (fan with a computer) writing his opinions.

    • Thank you for putting “fan with a computer” in parentheses for us, Rob. For a moment there I got confused because I’m more used to the other definition of blogger (lumberjack with a harpoon and a marble rye from Schnitzer’s).

      Also, do you typically think an article titled “Mets Trade Value” is going to contain “new information on the Mets”?? Perhaps Patrick should have kept in the part about Carlos Beltran’s favorite Beatle (it’s George!) or Dillon Gee’s favorite song from Grease (oddly enough, “Beauty School Drop Out”)

      • Rob

        Bartleby, really cool of you to jump in and defend Americas new age gossip mongers or as I like to think of them the solid news source of people under 30.

      • No, you’re the cool one.

        Also, pretty sure you are missing a few commas (and perhaps an apostrophe) in that reply…pretty typical for a blogger like yourself

      • Rob, you are a tool. I mean, maybe not on WoW, but in real life you are a tool.

      • Again I feel this overwhelming feeling to come to my little brother’s defense (Patrick is not really my little brother). What is it with people who have nothing nice to say? I have repeatedly told myself not to go here in the comments section, but I’m going to do it any way. Rob must thrive in all of his interpersonal relationships, family, co-workers, friends (hypothetically), managers, etc. Rob, why would you read this, then comment on it? Patrick I find it interesting. It is rare to find a story that has some accounting of the entire roster, 25 man, 40 man or more. Thank you for taking on such an endeavor. What the story shows is just how poorly Omar and company constructed this team over the past few years, in my humble opinion. Rob, I eagerly await your beatdown, mostly so you can further demonstrate what a tool you are.

    • And yet you read it.

      While completely missing the point. This was simply a review of the Mets’ current assets.

      What exactly do you expect in a baseball article a few days before Christmas? Another analysis of some players that didn’t go to the Mets?

      There really isn’t a lot of breaking news or anything to talk about right now.

      And no, I won’t get off your lawn.

    • Russ

      Ah, yet another sanctimonious troll with nothing constructive to add.

    • What would you rather be – a guy offering his opinion, or the guy compelled to sneer at him?

      I found this very helpful… I don’t know all that much about the Mets’ top prospects beyond Flores, Mejia, and Martinez. I dimly remember when Havens was drafted, really hoping we finally had one quality second baseman, rather than one of them scattered over four different guys. And Davis, who is about the only blue chip the Mets didn’t cash in the past four years, is well-known. Other than that? Are casual fans going to know any of these guys? Are even dedicated fans going to know about a variety of low-A players – and even if so, are they going to know details of their arbitration schedule, salary, and production?

      This puts a lot of that in one place. I’m grateful. If you can do better, go for it – though like so many drive-by critics, you have no blog of your own to offer, and no-place for anyone to find your opinions wanting.

  2. Enjoyed your write ups Patrick. Hopefully it leads to more interesting discussion than the previous comments.

    Seems like you value Vaughn much more than Darrell. They both seem to have spectacular years in Brooklyn. What gives Vaughn the advantage here, being one year younger?

    • Patrick Flood

      Actually, I think Vaughn’s biggest advantage is being the son of Greg. But he had a little better strikezone control, and Ceciliani’s slugging percentage was more doubles and triples based, while Vaughn hit 14 home runs. People seem to be a little higher on Vaughn, also, which is a big part too.

      • Russ

        I think that you’re selling Cory Vaughn short. The biggest knocks against him in college were his plate discipline and lack of power. The power came through this past summer. The plate discipline is also improved over his college numbers, but this is the area that will decide what type of big leaguer he will be. His upside is tremendous. Vaughn is a full blown five-tools player.

        This past summer, Vaughn hit for a .423 wOBA, as opposed to Ceciliani’s .417 wOBA. Both numbers are outstanding. To put this into perspective, a .330 wOBA is usually league average, .360 is very good, and over .400 could be considered elite. Albert Pujols had a .420 wOBA in 2010. No one is projecting either Ceciliani or Vaughn to be the next Pujols, but this perspective is needed to understand how these prospects got on everyone’s radar this year.

  3. Hopefully, Reyes, Pelfry and Beltran have decent years and icnrease their trade value. I do like all three of them, but I think if we are talking about competing in 2 or three years, they are not part of the long term plan.

    Thanks for the info, PF. It gives some more insight into the wheeling and dealing.

  4. It’s funny how a lot of people are down on Reyes and want him moved, but you (and myself) are some of the few who still see him as one of the best at his position.

    Reyes is in the leaders of almost every advanced stat for SS. Other than Hanley Ramirez (who probably wont’ stick at short) and Troy Tulowitzki (who I’m not completely sold on yet) who is better than Jose?

    I still believe that Reyes has little trade value now, but I could see that demand go up as the season progresses.

    What scares me is the Red Sox gave Crawford a 7 year $142m (back loaded) contract. You compare Reyes and Crawford and they are very similar players. Both are speed guys with some power. Reyes is younger and plays a good SS, so what is Reyes worth?

    Would Sandy give Jose 5+ years at 20mil? especially seeing that he’s gonna have to give Wright the same deal in two years and Bore-ass is gonna want at least $15+ for Pelfrey. That’s almost $100m for five players!

    • Reyes’ injury difficulties probably keeps his value under Crawford’s. Being a SS helps him, but the added wear and tear of playing there hurts him. Would a team give him something like Crawford’s contract if they didn’t think he could stay on the field?

      I’d love for the Mets to keep him, but realistically, they have to be prepared to move him off short in a few seasons. If Pagan is your CF and Martinez your LF (in a year or two), then by the time he’s 30, Reyes might be your RF.

  5. Reyes in RF ??

    Great article. Just like last season, the more important aspects of the organization this year might is the continued development of the kids. If Mejia, Familia, Kyle Allen, Cahoon, (double down on Brad Holt) and Urbina can take the next step, while Havens, F!, Wilmer, ARod and Puello stay healthy and put up some numbers, it will make for a most exciting 2012.

    I am confident that Ike, Thole, Niese, Parnell, Gee and our small army of second base prospects will provide solid production and augment Wright, Reyes, Pelf, Bay, Tron and Pagan. And never underestimate the power of RAD. RA should be the opening day starter and the “Tug” of this team.

    Ya Gotta Believe.

  6. Typical mets fan/blogger using Gees name as a reference to only bad headlines when it is just as easily used for great headlines and was during his first 5 five starts of his major league career. Seems Mets fans tend to be their own worst enemy.

    • There is no such thing as a good pun. It doesn’t matter if it is a positive or negative headline. A pun sucks.

      And I think that was more a shot at the horrible writing in the Post than Gee himself.

  7. No way FMART is in the top 10. And Jon Niese top 5? NO WAY!

    • Patrick Flood

      I can see arguments against Martinez, but what’s the problem with Niese? This isn’t a list of the best Mets players, it’s a list of players with the most trade value. A young, halfway decent pitcher under team control, cheap, for five years is really valuable.

  8. Wouldn’t Reyes’ value increase because its a contract year? (It seems the incentive of money seems to motivate for some odd reason)

    • Patrick Flood

      Baseball-Prospectus looked at that five years ago, and found that players do tend to play slightly better in contract years. I think Bill James has looked at it as well and found that players have a higher variance of performance in their contract years — more have much better years or much worse years than expected. So it’s kind of a toss up.

  9. On Parnell and being “hesitant to blame all of it on poor defenses and the sabermetric BAbip fairy” — you should be hesitant because BABIP doesn’t save Parnell.

    The BABIP fairy is not a magical and mysterious fairy. Like everything else sabermetric, BABIP has underlying stats — in this case, batted-ball rates. With Parnell, it’s easy to see why he posted a .378 BABIP against last year.

    Parnell allowed a line drive rate of 25.7% last year, a ground ball rate of 56.2% and a fly ball rate of 18.1%. That line drive rate is a big problem. Put it like this: No hitter in all of major league baseball managed a line drive rate of 25.7%, and no other pitcher posted a line drive rate against that high. That is to say, the average hitter facing Parnell was more likely to hit a line drive than Albert Pujols or Josh Hamilton or Joe Mauer against almost ANYONE. Because line drives go for hits about 70% of the time, a high line drive rate is very bad for a pitcher.

    It’s good to keep the ball on the ground, and Parnell did that very well, but ground balls become hits at a much higher rate than fly balls. Take into account that hitters who made contact were hitting line drives or grounders at a stunning 81.9% rate against Parnell and his huge BABIP is no surprise at all.

    This is pretty well explained by Parnell’s PitchFx data, which shows that most of his pitches had less movement on them last year than the major league average — particularly his changeup, slider and newly developed two-seam fastball. In short, he throws it hard, but he throws it straight, and his offspeed stuff is garbage.

    Of course, there are some caveats, most notably that the sample size here is quite small. There’s still plenty of hope for Parnell, and I think he can still develop into a top bullpen arm if he can turn his changeup, at the very least, into a plus pitch — which means taking 3-4 miles per hour off it and getting the thing to move. Sounds like someone needs to have a long talk with Johan Santana.

    • Patrick Flood

      This. More importantly, what do you think the BAbip fairy would look like? I think Bill James in a tutu would be appropriate.

      • I have watched Parnell pitch. Forget about all of Paul DePodesta’s favorite formulas, computers and tools. Parnell throws a straight fastball. What can the Mets do to get that thing to move just a little bit. Just a little bit of downward movement on that thing and we can talk about just how big of a contract he should sign to buy out his arbitration years.

  10. Bartleby, great response. Hysterical stuff. :)

    I enjoyed the two-part article. I don’t really expect to get “new information” out of something like this… I expect some insight and opinion and I got both, so job well done.

    I think you have a pretty decent grasp of the Mets farm system right now. I have high hopes for the futures of Pelfrey, Neise, Pagan and Davis, as well as the continued success of Wright, Santana, Bay and Reyes. I do expect (and hope) the Mets will retain Reyes after the 2011 season… but I agree that if some team wants to throw some excellent prospects (think the Atlanta Braves/Texas Rangers trade for Teixeria a few years ago) for Reyes, it would be hard to pass it up.

  11. i think you totally misused the word nepotism there.

    • Patrick Flood

      Yeah, it’s not really nepotism. But it’s close to what I mean. Vaughn is going to get a lot of chances because of his lineage. I just didn’t want it to sound like I was talking about breeding horses.

  12. Are you saying Pagan is one of the top 11 outfielders in baseball overall? What? Or just defensively?

    • Patrick Flood

      Tenth or eleventh best overall … okay, maybe that’s aggressive. Definitely a top fifteen outfielder though, and top five center fielder. .290/.350/.450 hitter, terrific defense in center, and excellent baserunning. Name three center fielders you’d rather have than Pagan right now. Josh Hamilton, Carlos Gonzalez, and then who? Franklin Gutierrez or Michael Bourn?

      • Hamilton and Gonzalez are both not even close to Pagan’s defensive ability in CF as well.

      • Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Nate McLouth, Torii Hunter, Adam Jones, Matt Kemp, Torres, Colby Rasmus, Andrew McCutchen, Vernon Wells…to name a few. Typical SNY.

      • McLouth hit what in 2010? Sizemore injured and getting older and getting expensive. Kemp attitude. Curtis Granderson cannot hit LHPs. Victorino? I will take Angel over Dictorino. Ellsbury, slap hitter. Why are we failing to acknowledge one of our own? Ranks high in WAR. Cannot find it quickly, but I recall him being better than most Mets with RISP.

      • One good season, and a slide at the end of his 2010. I feel like we are pumping him up wayyy too much. He is a Fourth outfielder. We should trade him now while he is hot, pump and dump.

      • Patrick Flood

        In all of baseball, Pagan has the sixth most wins above replacement as a center fielder since 2009. And that’s in just a season and a half.

        Grady Sizemore is coming off micro f/x surgery. Would you really rather have him going forward? Or Nate McClouth, who hit .190/.298/.322 last season? Hunter and Wells are signed to awful contracts. And Pagan is just plain better than everyone else.

        Maybe I’d take McCutchen over Pagan. Maybe.

      • Victorino > Pagan
        Kemp >>>>>>>> Pagan (WAY BETTER)
        Jones > Pagan

      • You would also be ridiculous if you had to think when choosing McCutchen or Pagan

      • Patrick Flood

        Pagan is younger, better, and cheaper than Victorino. Matt Kemp had a .310 OBP last season. If you have some kind of evidence other than your predetermined opinion, I’m all ears.

  13. Terrific analysis. But why is it so? Answer: Parnell throws a straight fastball with indifferent location IN the strike zone. That won’t stop Parnell from being an elite reliever — IF– Parnell develops pinpoint location within and around the strike zone, and a good change up.

    • Totally agree on Parnell Pegleg, cather sets up inside, parnells pitch is outer part of strike zone. His command is real bad imo, barely gets thru a batter without missing a spot pretty badly. To me he is very unreliable i really hope he improves on command obv live arm. Also Andrew grat line drive stats

  14. I’m surprised you have Reyes as far down as he is, and that Pagan is ranked ahead of him. Just based on sheer talent, age and position, Reyes would likely bring back a much bigger return.

    • Patrick Flood

      But Reyes is signed for $11 million for just this year, and Pagan is in arbitration for the next two years. Contracts matter in this list. If Reyes has a big first half, however, he might leapfrog Pagan.

  15. I think Thole had a very good percentage in throwing out runners……of course very little power but I think he can do the job

  16. Loved the analysis. Tending to look at things a bit “glass half empty,” which is good for where the team is right now.

    Biggest surprise for me was F-Mart. Talent evaluators still think he has all the tools, is young and just needs to stay healthy to put it together. This kids was Omar’s find, so I am curious to see how the new crew evaluates him. Maybe they just take the hands off, let him play in AAA and see what happens.

  17. snooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

  18. Really enjoyed the 2-part series. Didn’t realize Holt had blown up like that at the end of the season, but I would still expect to see him a little higher than he was (same for Nieuwenhuis). And if Minaya becomes GM somewhere else, I definitely think we’d be able to move Beltran’s arthritic self. Wishful thinking….

  19. There’s is no right or wrong list of this sort, just locking in on a perception shared by those who matter, in other words the front offices of other baseball franchises and the scouts they utilize. I can only say that I agree with much of it and like Pagan getting his dues on your list; Nobody undervalues him more than my fellow Met fans, dollar for dollar he might be the best value in baseball given his age and skilset and I don’t think we have seen it all yet from him, particularly in the power department: look for him to hit 20+ HRs this year.

  20. Wow. This team is stacked! It is sure a good thing we are positioning ourselves for being good sometime around 2012, cause looking at this list I’m ready to throw something out a computer. At lease the farm system isn’t baren, we’ve got lots of upcoming star caliber players just waiting to break through to the majors…too bad 4 of our highest paid players have no value…basically untradeable sunk costs.

    • Patrick Flood

      Hi Bobo. We missed you.

      Everyone else, please don’t feed the trolls.

      • haha Patrick, nice one. You can honestly say that after writing that list you aren’t a bit depressed for the 2011 season? Given the team’s lack of flexibility, remaining years on Bay/Santana, and the question if these Mets (and there ever shrinking budget) would even resign Reyes aren’t you depressed about 2012 too?

        Apolegize for being a voice of reason in this otherwise off season state of insantity, but I call them like I see them. Enjoy your holiday.

      • Sorry Patrick I should stop feeding the trolls. You should have reprimanded me sooner. May be you did, but I missed it.

      • Patrick Flood

        I grant you special troll feeding permission on this blog. Use it wisely.

  21. Signs of improvement will come when Wright is no longer “the Mets best player.” Wright is a nice player, but he’s not a star as some on this forum think. Sadly, the Mets have a long way to go before they become true contenders.

    • while I agree Wright is overrated, I think it’s silly to nit pick about rather he’s a “star” or not particularly because it’s a completely subjective term anyway…the closest determination would be if a player was actually an all-star which he was so the puts a damper on your point. He puts up at least top 5 five MLB numbers at the postion year in and out, what non-sexual act must he do for you to get your vote? I will say ,if he’s the club “leader” we are in trouble, he is a wide eyed jock parrot who regurgitates platitudes and sound bites like sarah Palin.

  22. Excellent write-up. My only criticism is your take on Ike. The premise that Ike “won’t be a superstar” is a popular one but not really a fair one. Ike’s power potential is tremendous, and as you showed, he made adjustments at the plate and continued to take his walks. Batting eye, the ability to lay of pitches and knowing what pitches could be coming are all things that a rookie can (and should) improve upon moving forward. Combine all this with his excellent glove, and you have a very good player.

    While his swing is a bit long and he’s going to strike out a lot, I don’t think it’s unrealistic for him to be a 5 WAR player. Fangraphs already had him at 3.7 (of course that’s largely based on his UZR, but his fielding prowess was apparent). That may be his ceiling, but being a 5 WAR player makes him, if not a superstar, a very, very good player.

    At the very least, can we stop tying him to Adam LaRoche?

  23. Great list. Personally, I would put Reyes much higher based solely on position.

    Someone else brought it up, but there are only 2 shortstops who are better than Jose in baseball right now (HanRam & Tulo). Hanley will be an outfielder in 2 years.

    The scarcity of talented SS in MLB right now I think boost Jose significantly. I’d put DW 1, Reyes 2, Niese 3. Ike is great, but 1B are a dime a dozen.

  24. Interesting article on the Mets farm system. Even though fanboy Patty up here really likes the system, the writer below ranked them 27th, as in really bad.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-10-prospects-the-new-york-mets/

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