Monthly Archives: June 2011

Almost There

Fangraphs’ leaderboard for Wins Above Replacement this season as of this morning — basically a list of the most valuable position players in baseball. Reyes is a few games away from catching Jose Bautista for the major league lead. Bautista has better offensive numbers, but Reyes has done more fielding work as a shortstop.

Also, the Mets have played 80 games this season and Reyes already has 119 hits, 15 triples, and 65 runs scored. He’s on pace for 241 hits, 30 triples, and 132 runs scored this season.

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The Multi-media Blitz Continues

Live from the basement!

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Mostly Mets Podcast: Episode 3

Remember last week when I was like, “Hey, don’t you want to hear Toby Hyde and myself talk about the Mets in a Podcast”? And you were all, “Yeah, totally, but I wish Ted Berg would join them and make an SNY blog trio.”

Well, today is your lucky day. Possibly. Maybe you’ll drop a $5 dollar bill down a sewer grate later and then today won’t be so lucky anymore. But for right now, all your podcast dreams can come true. Episode 3 of the Mostly Mets Podcast is above, featuring Toby Hyde of MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com, Ted Berg of Tedquarters.net, and me of here. We talk giving big money to Jose Reyes, using K-Rod in non-save situations, and what David Wright’s impending return means for the Mets’ infield. You can subscribe here, and I think we’re hoping to get on iTunes at some point. But check it out. We’ll love you forever. Maybe.

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Things to Know about the Detroit Tigers

The Mets go to Detroit this week for a three game set against the Tigers. Here are some things you might want to know about them: Continue reading

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Pay the Man?

It’s only June 27th, not even the halfway point of the season, and it already feels like there’s nothing left to say about Jose Reyes. He had four hits yesterday — including another triple — stole a base, scored three times, and drove in a run. In the field, he snagged a hard one-hopper in the bottom of the first inning that may have been the turning point of the game. But yesterday wasn’t even close to being his best game of the season. Let’s put it this way: Reyes is not in the top ten in the league in on-base percentage (he’s 11th) or walks, and he’s not in the top ten for home runs or RBI. Other than those four, he is in the top ten in just about every other offensive category, and leads most of them. It’s gotten to the point that I half expect a coyote to hand Reyes dynamite when he’s on the basepaths, or him to reveal accidentally that he’s discovered how to bend the rules of the Matrix.

Whatever the reason for his success, it’s becoming more and more obvious that someone is going to pay Jose Reyes a lot of money after this season. He’ll be 29 in 2012, he plays a valuable defensive position, and he’s just having a ridiculous season. People give big contracts to players like that. Reyes has fairly similar career numbers to Carl Crawford, and Crawford received a seven-year, $140 million dollar contract from the Red Sox last offseason. Derek Jeter, a nominal shortstop, is being paid $51 million dollars over the next three seasons. Troy Tulowitzki, another elite shortstop, is being paid $158 million dollars from now until 2020. So it looks like someone is going to invest over $100 million dollars in Jose Reyes this winter.

Which means that the big question the Mets need to ask themselves is this: How much money are they willing to pay Jose Reyes? And, how much money should they be willing to pay Jose Reyes? Because, as great as Reyes has been, $100 million dollars is an enormous bet to make. How many big free agent contracts can you remember that, once the contract was completed, the team said, “You know, in retrospect, that was a good decision.” Putting that many resources into one player a big risk.

But let’s handicap that risk. Here’s what I did: I made a list of players similar to Jose Reyes at age 28 — i.e., players who were decent hitters with a lot of value in their running game, and had a similar career value to Reyes through age 28. I threw out anyone from before World War I (different game), anyone who played during World War II (returning players and integration caused the talent level in the game to jump immediately afterward), and anyone killed by a pitched ball (Baseball-Reference lists Ray Chapman as the hitter most similar to Jose Reyes). I added in a few modern shortstops who had a similar value to Reyes at age 28 but weren’t as good of hitters. The list is more or less in order of Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement through their age 28 season, so the players listed before Reyes were better through age 28, the ones after him were worse.

Each player’s statistics through age 28 comes first, and their statistics from age 29-35, the next seven years, below that. (Or from age 29 through the present, if the player isn’t 35 yet.) The “Pay the Man?” question is short for “Would you be happy if you gave this player a seven-year, $126 million dollar contract for their age 29-35 seasons?” In the words of a beer commercial, here we go: Continue reading

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Filed under Columns, Mets, Words

14 Runs with No Home Runs

Yesterday’s Mets-Rangers’ game was more or less a typical affair at the Ballpark in Arlington. One team scored 14 runs. One team hit three home runs. Only the same team didn’t do both: The Mets scored 14 runs without the aid of a home run, while the Rangers, who lost, launched three, leading to four of their five runs.

So I was curious: How often does a team score at least 14 runs without hitting a home run? Because it seems like it would be hard to plate that many runners with running into a pitch or two along the way. Continue reading

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Josh Hamilton’s Eyes

Interesting post about Josh Hamilton, who the Mets will see this weekend, and his struggles during days games. His splits look legit: For his career, Hamilton has a .976 OPS during night games against .728 during the day, though the sample of night games is much larger. The above post quotes an ophthalmologist who suggests that this may be a real phenomenon for the light eyed, as blue and green eyes have more glare. Or something. But I guess this is good news for the Mets, who play day games against Texas on Saturday and Sunday.

If you were wondering, as a group, MLB hitters have slightly better numbers during day games this season, .716 OPS during the day to .705 at night, but slightly better numbers during night games each of the last six season.

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Things to Know about the Texas Rangers

The Mets travel down to Arlington this weekend to play a three game set against the Texas Rangers. Here are some things you might want to know about them: Continue reading

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Mostly Mets Podcast: Episode 2

Are you sitting right now, thinking: “Golly, if only there was a way I could hear Toby Hyde and Patrick Flood talk about the Mets through the magic of the internet”?

Well, if so, you’re weird. But you’re also in luck. Episode 2 of the “Mostly Mets” podcast is up: We talk Mike Pelfrey, the Mets’ offense, and a defense of Willie Harris. And Mets top prospect Matt Harvey talks to Toby. Check it out.

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Someone Probably Should Have Called for it

The Mets announced today that Ike Davis’ ankle is not healing as expected, and if the progress isn’t satisfactory in a few weeks, he could have season-ending microfracture surgery. Sayeth MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo:

An MRI taken Wednesday revealed no improvement of the bone bruise in his ankle. Davis will continue to rehab the joint for the next three weeks, at which point the Mets will reevaluate the first baseman and determine whether or not he will need to undergo season-ending surgery.

Here’s what I want to know: How on earth did that play, in the above video, turn into this. A third baseman — who shouldn’t have even been on the field because he had a broken back — ends his first baseman’s season by bumping into him on an infield fly. Freak injuries happen, I guess, but still — as freak injuries go, this is pretty freaky.

EDIT: Greatest video still ever. It looks like Davis is dragging a tantrum-throwing Wright away from a candy store.

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