Everyone’s UZR is lower than their Runs Saved except for Fernando Tatis – but of course Runs Saved is usually higher. 72% of the 2009 starting outfielders listed on Fangraphs’ UZR page had Runs Saved higher than their UZR’s. Using that percentage, there is about a 19% chance that all five Mets outfielders with +500 innings, the guys with the biggest samples, would all have UZR’s lower than their +/-. Not great, but maybe it’s all just noise.
Here’s some other stuff:
2009 Mets UZR-Runs Saved Correlation: 0.71
2009 ML OF Starters UZR – Runs Saved Correlation: 0.83
This is just the correlation between UZR and +/-. The Mets’ correlation is a bit worse, but in a much smaller sample size – not sure if much can be read into this. For the league starters, I used all 64 outfielders who are listed on Fangraphs’ outfield UZR page.
Mets OF Average Difference between UZR and Runs Saved: 7.68
League Starting OF Average Difference between UZR and Runs Saved: 3.93
This is the average difference between a player’s UZR and his Runs Saved. The Mets’ difference is only for outfielders with +500 innings – so just Pagan, Beltran, Church, Francoeur, and Sheffield – because they are being compared to starters who all have closer to 1000 innings. You can see that the Mets have a much larger difference between their UZR and their Runs Saved than everyone else. Again, this is a small sample size being compared to a huge one, so read into this what you will.