As much bad luck as the Braves have had, the Phillies have made up for. While going 32-15 over their past 47 to take the division lead (.681 W%. The Phillies are a good team, but a full season of .681 W% would mean 110 wins, which would rank among the greatest seasons ever post-WWII), the Phillies have outscored their opponents 212-168 (4.51 runs/game, 3.57 runs allowed/game). The Pythagenpat winning percentage for that run differential/environment is 0.604, or a 93-win pace, or 28-19 over 47 games. Yes, if baseball weren’t subject to the whims of random variation in scoring distribution, the Braves would’ve actually gained a half game on the Phillies over their last 46.
Good job by Capitol Avenue pointing out that while the Phillies may have caught the Braves, they didn’t necessarily play all that much better in doing so.
That, or it’s just rationalizing about a collapsing team. I know how that feels.
