Monthly Archives: December 2010

David Wright on Mets Hot Stove


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Fangraphs: Opinion or Fact?

Nail on the head. You have a right to hold the opinion that Jack Morris was a better pitcher than Bert Blyleven. But your opinion would be wrong, because Morris was not a better pitcher. Blyleven was.

Now, if you want to say you enjoyed watching Morris pitch more than you enjoyed watching Blyleven, that’s also your opinion. Provided you are telling the truth, however, that’s an opinion which can’t be refuted by facts. If you liked watching Morris pitch more, then you liked watching Morris pitch more. But that would be a matter of personal taste, and not a matter of objective analysis. One runs into big problems when personal taste and objective analysis are confused.

I don’t think this opinion problem is limited to just baseball, by the way. There seems to be society wide issue with confusing subjective opinion and objective facts. Everyone has the right to an opinion; not everyone’s opinion is right.


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The Hall of Fame Problem

1936 was the first year a class was inducted into baseball’s Hall of Fame. Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Herman Ruth, and Honus Wagner were the five elected. At the time, the United States had a population of about 128 million people; 481 men played major league baseball in that year, a figure that represented about 0.000375% of the United States’ then-population. Click Here to Continue Reading


Filed under Columns, Words

BtBS: Bunting

Lucas Apostoleris of Beyond the Box Scores looks at some bunt statistics, and concludes that Angel Pagan and Jose Reyes were two of the most efficient bunters in the game in 2010. He also notes that Luis Castillo bunts a lot, but presumably not as efficiently. Castillo’s first inning bunts when Reyes is on first base drive me nuts every single time Slappy drops one down.

These recent Mets have featured a large number of speedy bunters. Reyes, Pagan, Castillo, Endy Chavez, Carlos Gomez, and probably some that I’ve missed. I wonder if that changes with the new FO.

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Mets Leaders in Runs Created

AP Photo/Kathy Willens

Runs Created is a statistic invented by Bill James that estimates how many runs a player contributed to his team on offense (that is, how many runs he created with his bat). The basic formula is:

Hits plus Walks
times Total Bases
divided by At Bats plus Walks

Or times on base, multiplied by power, divided by opportunities. Other writers have created more accurate versions of Runs Created since James, but this thirty year old formula is 95% accurate for predicting a team’s runs scored. If you apply the formula to a player, you can estimate how many runs he created for his team just using his hits, walks, total bases, and at bats.

David Wright passed Darryl Stawberry in 2010 as the Mets’ franchise leader in runs created. The top ten Mets in runs created, all time (the top three are easily guessed):

Rk Player RC From To G PA R RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 David Wright 763 2004 2010 1004 4335 639 664 .305 .383 .516 .899 *5/D
2 Darryl Strawberry 759 1983 1990 1109 4549 662 733 .263 .359 .520 .878 *9/87
3 Mike Piazza 675 1998 2005 972 3941 532 655 .296 .373 .542 .915 *2/3D
4 Edgardo Alfonzo 671 1995 2002 1086 4449 614 538 .292 .367 .445 .812 45/6D
5 Howard Johnson 663 1985 1993 1154 4591 627 629 .251 .341 .459 .801 *56/897
6 Ed Kranepool 638 1962 1979 1853 5997 536 614 .261 .316 .377 .693 *379/8
7 Jose Reyes 598 2003 2010 924 4254 634 379 .286 .335 .434 .769 *6/4
8 Cleon Jones 586 1963 1975 1201 4683 563 521 .281 .340 .406 .746 *789/3
9 Keith Hernandez 546 1983 1989 880 3684 455 468 .297 .387 .429 .816 *3
10 Carlos Beltran 539 2005 2010 741 3221 490 493 .279 .366 .499 .864 *8/D
Provided by View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/27/2010.

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Mark Simon: A Vote for Keith, Olerud

Mark Simon of ESPN-New York explains why he would vote for former Mets Keith Hernandez and John Olerud for the Hall of Fame.

Normally I’d comment here, but I think I’ll save my Hernandez or Olerud thoughts for the moment — it’s looking like a slow news week in Metsville, so expect historical posts soon.

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Amazin’ Avenue: 2010 Mets on the Basepaths

The short version: Reyes and Pagan make the Mets fast.

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