The Gee-Young-Capuano Meter

A couple of weeks ago, in a post discussing the chances of the 2011 Mets winning more games than the 2010 Mets, I mentioned that the biggest question for this year was the Johan Santana-less pitching rotation. Santana pitched 199 innings with a 2.98 ERA last season, something these Mets would probably need to replace in order to surpass last season’s efforts. (Though, to be fair, they do get to replace John Maine and Oliver Perez as well.)

This being the case, I stated that if the Mets could squeeze 30 quality starts — that’s a start lasting at least 6 innings, surrendering 3 runs or fewer — out of Chris Young, Chris Capuano, and Dillon Gee, they’d be all right in the rotation. I’m thinking I’m going to mindlessly stick to that and turn it into a prediction: If the Mets get 30 quality starts out of those three pitchers, they’ll win more game than last season. That’s the key.

That and outscoring their opponent in at least 80 games.

I’ll be checking in on those three pitchers occasionally. Through the first two-plus weeks of the season:

  • Chris Young — 1 quality start. On the DL with bicep tendinitis. We’ll see how that goes.
  • Chris Capuano — 0 quality starts. 12 runs and 3 home runs in 12.2 innings isn’t so great, but a 13-to-4 strikeout to walk ratio is.
  • Dillon Gee — 0 quality starts. Takes Young’s place. Pitched about as well as you can without getting a quality start yesterday.
  • Group Total — 1 quality start in 5 attempts

One quality start from the group and the Mets record sits at 5-11. Coincidence? Perhaps. But perhaps not.

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2 Comments

Filed under Mets, Words

2 responses to “The Gee-Young-Capuano Meter

  1. Patrick, I agree with your premise that the key to 80+ wins is directly tied to the ability of Young, Capuano, and Gee to provide quality starts. However, the Mets 5-11 start is, in my opinion, more attributable to the fact that the other 3 guys in the rotation have only combined for 2 quality starts in 10 attempts. That’s no coincidence. I don’t think any reasonable fan expected the 3 holdovers from last year to replace Johan, but if they don’t find a way to get deeper into their starts while being able to avoid the big inning, it’s going to be a long year.

    • Patrick Flood

      Of course. My assumption was that Pelfrey, Dickey, and Niese were closer to sure things than Young and Capuano, considering their history of injury.

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