Rauch out of the eighth

The above is the Mets’ bullpen ranked by a statistic called “gmLI.” This stat, gmLI, is “game leverage index” — or something — and it measures how important the situations are on average into which the pitcher enters. E.g., if it’s a tied game in the ninth inning, it counts as a high gmLI for that reliever. If it’s a 10-run game in the seventh inning, it’s a low gmLI for the reliever. Average the gmLI for each appearance together, and you get what you see here. A gmLI of 1.0 is league average, higher is more important spots, lower is less important spots.

Anyway, if you look at the above, Terry Collins has gone to Frank Francisco in the on-average most important spots this season — which makes sense, he’s the closer — followed by Tim Byrdak, and then Bobby Parnell and Jon Rauch are about even. In other words: Rauch was already #3 or #4 in Collins’ bullpen hierarchy, so his demotion from the eighth inning maybe doesn’t mean all that much. If he flips with Parnell, Rauch probably pitches in just as important spots, only those spots won’t be in the eighth. Set-up man is just a title.

Also worth noting: The WPA column above is “win probability added,” a stat that answers the question: Did this player increase or decrease his team’s chances of winning? And according to that stat, Tim Byrdak is the only Mets reliever who has increased the Mets’ chances of winning in a meaningful way this season.


Filed under Words

3 responses to “Rauch out of the eighth

  1. Patrick, I think you posted these numbers a couple weeks ago as well. Is there any significant difference in the way he is using Rauch and Parnell now as compared to before when they were both pitching a little better. Or at least, the results where better.

    • So Parnell has inched ahead of Rauch in this index.

      • Patrick Flood

        Yeah, I did post this a couple of weeks ago, too. It’s an interesting thing to keep track of. And useful for comparing what Terry Collins intends to do with to what Terry Collins actually does.

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