For no reason at all: Pitchers with the highest batting averages against on balls in play — that is, batting average against, minus home runs and strikeouts — over the past five years (minimum 600 IP):
Rk | Player | IP | G | GS | W | L | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Zach Duke | .330 | 879.2 | 146 | 145 | 37 | 68 | 4.80 | 88 |
2 | Paul Maholm | .321 | 940.0 | 153 | 153 | 44 | 58 | 4.58 | 93 |
3 | Ian Snell | .321 | 749.2 | 134 | 130 | 37 | 50 | 4.74 | 91 |
4 | Kevin Millwood | .320 | 945.2 | 156 | 156 | 52 | 62 | 4.67 | 96 |
5 | Andy Pettitte | .320 | 957.1 | 158 | 155 | 68 | 47 | 4.11 | 107 |
6 | Doug Davis | .318 | 783.2 | 135 | 135 | 40 | 49 | 4.56 | 101 |
7 | Aaron Harang | .318 | 924.1 | 148 | 144 | 50 | 55 | 4.23 | 106 |
8 | Livan Hernandez | .318 | 995.2 | 162 | 162 | 56 | 59 | 4.94 | 88 |
9 | Kyle Lohse | .317 | 729.0 | 142 | 124 | 39 | 46 | 4.86 | 89 |
10 | Carlos Silva | .317 | 679.0 | 126 | 119 | 39 | 53 | 5.37 | 81 |
11 | Jeff Suppan | .316 | 837.1 | 157 | 142 | 44 | 49 | 4.76 | 89 |
12 | Kyle Davies | .314 | 619.0 | 117 | 117 | 35 | 50 | 5.57 | 78 |
13 | Mike Pelfrey | .314 | 683.0 | 116 | 113 | 43 | 41 | 4.31 | 96 |
14 | Brad Penny | .312 | 720.2 | 125 | 122 | 52 | 35 | 4.26 | 104 |
15 | Nate Robertson | .312 | 706.0 | 143 | 114 | 37 | 48 | 5.09 | 89 |
Just four of the fifteen pitchers have an ERA+ better than 100.
As is sometimes misstated, a lot of a pitcher’s batting average on balls in play is luck and defense, but some is his own skill. Johan Santana’s batting averages against on balls in play — .278 BAbip for his career — are routinely lower than his team’s defense would imply. Mike Pelfrey’s BAbip are routinely higher (.314 career), and thus he is #13 on this list. There’s A LOT of randomness at work, but it’s not ENTIRELY randomness. Johan Santana is actually better at preventing hits on balls in play than Mike Pelfrey. You can see that the list above is populated with the sort of pitchers you might imagine get hit pretty hard, and I don’t think that’s just a function of chance.
That said, as this chart shows, a lot of BAbip is a pitcher’s defensive help. Good defenses will turn more balls into outs than bad defenses, and bad defenses will turn more outs into hits than good ones. The Pirates have been a bad defensive club for five years. The top three pitchers on that list have spent a lot of time pitching for those Pirates. This is probably not a coincidence.
Some pitchers throw pitches that get crushed. Some don’t. Those who drink down BABIP and talk about it like there is a ton of luck involved are drinking the BABIP kool-aid. Some hitters crush pitches and run fast. I would imagine that would bolster BABIP a bit more than luck on a few Texas Leaguers.
Short term, such as in a single season, luck plays a bigger part in BAbip. That said, luck starts to wash out as you move towards bigger and bigger numbers of innings. And if you play for the Pirates, you’re screwed.